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In the spring period of the Multidisciplinary drifting Observatory for the Study of Arctic Climate (MOSAiC) expedition, an initiative was in place to increase the radiosounding frequency during warm air intrusions in the Atlantic Arctic sector. Two episodes with increased surface temperatures were captured during April 12–22, 2020, during a targeted observing period (TOP). The large-scale circulation efficiently guided the pulses of warm air into the Arctic and the observed surface temperature increased from −30°C to near melting conditions marking the transition to spring, as the temperatures did not return to values below −20°C. Back-trajectory analysis identifies 3 pathways for the transport. For the first temperature maximum, the circulation guided the airmass over the Atlantic to the northern Norwegian coast and then to the MOSAiC site. The second pathway was from the south, and it passed over the Greenland ice sheet and arrived at the observational site as a warm but dry airmass due to precipitation on the windward side. The third pathway was along the Greenland coast and the arriving airmass was both warm and moist. The back trajectories originating from pressure levels between 700 and 900 hPa line up vertically, which is somewhat surprising in this dynamically active environment. The processes acting along the trajectory originating from 800 hPa at the MOSAIC site are analyzed. Vertical profiles and surface energy exchange are presented to depict the airmass transformation based on ERA5 reanalysis fields. The TOP could be used for model evaluation and Lagrangian model studies to improve the representation of the small-scale physical processes that are important for airmass transformation. A comparison between MOSAiC observations and ERA5 reanalysis demonstrates challenges in the representation of small-scale processes, such as turbulence and the contributions to various terms of the surface energy budget, that are often misrepresented in numerical weather prediction and climate models.

This study evaluates the simulation of wintertime (15 October, 2019, to 15 March, 2020) statistics of the central Arctic near-surface atmosphere and surface energy budget observed during the MOSAiC campaign with short-term forecasts from 7 state-of-the-art operational and experimental forecast systems. Five of these systems are fully coupled ocean-sea ice-atmosphere models. Forecast systems need to simultaneously simulate the impact of radiative effects, turbulence, and precipitation processes on the surface energy budget and near-surface atmospheric conditions in order to produce useful forecasts of the Arctic system. This study focuses on processes unique to the Arctic, such as, the representation of liquid-bearing clouds at cold temperatures and the representation of a persistent stable boundary layer. It is found that contemporary models still struggle to maintain liquid water in clouds at cold temperatures. Given the simple balance between net longwave radiation, sensible heat flux, and conductive ground flux in the wintertime Arctic surface energy balance, a bias in one of these components manifests as a compensating bias in other terms. This study highlights the different manifestations of model bias and the potential implications on other terms. Three general types of challenges are found within the models evaluated: representing the radiative impact of clouds, representing the interaction of atmospheric heat fluxes with sub-surface fluxes (i.e., snow and ice properties), and representing the relationship between stability and turbulent heat fluxes.

Drifting buoy observations of ocean surface waves in hurricanes are combined with modeled surface wind speeds. The observations include targeted aerial deployments into Hurricane Ian (2022) and opportunistic measurements from the Sofar Ocean Spotter global network in Hurricane Fiona (2022). Analysis focuses on the slope of the waves, as quantified by the spectral mean square slope. At low‐to‐moderate wind speeds (<15 m s⁻¹), slopes increase linearly with wind speed. At higher winds (>15 m s⁻¹), slopes continue to increase, but at a reduced rate. At extreme winds (>30 m s⁻¹), slopes asymptote. The mean square slopes are directly related to the wave spectral shapes, which over the resolved frequency range (0.03–0.5 Hz) are characterized by an equilibrium tail () at moderate winds and a saturation tail () at higher winds. The asymptotic behavior of wave slope as a function of wind speed could contribute to the reduction of surface drag at high wind speeds.

In tropical cyclones (TCs), the peak wind speed is typically found near the top of the boundary layer (approximately 0.5–1 km). Recently, it was shown that in a few observed TCs, the wind speed within the eyewall can increase with height within the midtroposphere, resulting in a secondary local maximum at 4–5 km. This study presents additional evidence of such an atypical structure, using dropsonde and Doppler radar observations from Hurricane Patricia (2015). Near peak intensity, Patricia exhibited an absolute wind speed maximum at 5–6-km height, along with a weaker boundary layer maximum. Idealized simulations and a diagnostic boundary layer model are used to investigate the dynamics that result in these atypical wind profiles, which only occur in TCs that are very intense (surface wind speed > 50 m s⁻¹) and/or very small (radius of maximum winds < 20 km). The existence of multiple maxima in wind speed is a consequence of an inertial oscillation that is driven ultimately by surface friction. The vertical oscillation in the radial velocity results in a series of unbalanced tangential wind jets, whose magnitude and structure can manifest as a midlevel wind speed maximum. The wavelength of the inertial oscillation increases with vertical mixing length l_∞in a turbulence parameterization, and no midlevel wind speed maximum occurs when l_∞is large. Consistent with theory, the wavelength in the simulations scales with (2 K/ I)^1/2, where K is the (vertical) turbulent diffusivity, and I²is the inertial stability. This scaling is used to explain why only small and/or strong TCs exhibit midlevel wind speed maxima.

Operational numerical models failed to predict the record-setting rapid intensification and rapid overwater weakening of Hurricane Patricia (2015) in the eastern North Pacific basin, resulting in large intensity forecast errors. In an effort to better understand the mesoscale processes contributing to Patricia’s rapid intensity changes, we analyze high-resolution aircraft observations collected on 22–23 October. Spline-based variational analyses are created from observations collected via in situ measurements, Doppler radar, and full-tropospheric dropsonde profiles as part of the Office of Naval Research Tropical Cyclone Intensity (TCI) experiment and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Intensity Forecasting Experiment (IFEX). We present the first full-tropospheric calculation of the dry, axisymmetric Ertel’s potential vorticity (PV) in a tropical cyclone without relying on balance assumptions. Detailed analyses reveal the formation of a “hollow tower” PV structure as Patricia rapidly approached its maximum intensity, and a subsequent breakdown of this structure during Patricia’s rapid overwater weakening phase. Transforming the axisymmetric PV analyses from radius–height to potential radius–isentropic coordinates reveals that Patricia’s rapid intensification was closely related to the distribution of diabatic heating and eddy mixing. During Patricia’s rapid overwater weakening phase, eddy mixing processes are hypothesized to be the primary factor rearranging the PV distribution near the eye–eyewall region, diluting the PV previously confined to the hollow tower while approximately conserving the absolute circulation.

Gravity wave perturbations in 15-μm nadir radiances from the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) and Cross-Track Infrared Sounder (CrIS) informed scientific flight planning for the Deep Propagating Gravity Wave Experiment (DEEPWAVE). AIRS observations from 2003 to 2011 identified the South Island of New Zealand during June–July as a “natural laboratory” for observing deep-propagating gravity wave dynamics. Near-real-time AIRS and CrIS gravity wave products monitored wave activity in and around New Zealand continuously within 10 regions of scientific interest, providing nowcast guidance and validation for flight planners. A novel technique used these gravity wave products to validate upstream forecasts of nonorographic gravity waves with 1–2-day lead times, providing time to plan flight intercepts as tropospheric westerlies brought forecast source regions into range. Postanalysis verifies the choice of 15 μm radiances for nowcasting, since 4.3-μm gravity wave products yielded spurious diurnal cycles, provided no altitude sensitivity, and proved relatively insensitive to deep gravity wave activity over the South Island. Comparisons of DEEPWAVE flight tracks with AIRS and CrIS gravity wave maps highlight successful repeated vectoring of the aircraft into regions of deep orographic and nonorographic gravity wave activity, and how background winds control the amplitude of waves in radiance perturbation maps. We discuss how gravity wave information in AIRS and CrIS radiances might be directly assimilated into future operational forecasting systems.

A remarkable, large‐amplitude, mountain wave (MW) breaking event was observed on the night of 21 June 2014 by ground‐based optical instruments operated on the New Zealand South Island during the Deep Propagating Gravity Wave Experiment (DEEPWAVE). Concurrent measurements of the MW structures, amplitudes, and background environment were made using an Advanced Mesospheric Temperature Mapper, a Rayleigh Lidar, an All‐Sky Imager, and a Fabry‐Perot Interferometer. The MW event was observed primarily in the OH airglow emission layer at an altitude of ~82 km, over an ~2‐hr interval (~10:30–12:30 UT), during strong eastward winds at the OH altitude and above, which weakened with time. The MWs displayed dominant horizontal wavelengths ranging from ~40 to 70 km and temperature perturbation amplitudes as large as ~35 K. The waves were characterized by an unusual, “saw‐tooth” pattern in the larger‐scale temperature field exhibiting narrow cold phases separating much broader warm phases with increasing temperatures toward the east, indicative of strong overturning and instability development. Estimates of the momentum fluxes during this event revealed a distinct periodicity (~25 min) with three well‐defined peaks ranging from ~600 to 800 m²/s², among the largest ever inferred at these altitudes. These results suggest that MW forcing at small horizontal scales (<100 km) can play large roles in the momentum budget of the mesopause region when forcing and propagation conditions allow them to reach mesospheric altitudes with large amplitudes. A detailed analysis of the instability dynamics accompanying this breaking MW event is presented in a companion paper, Fritts et al. (2019,https://doi.org/10.1029/2019jd030899).